We are in the middle of Winter. With that brings bad weather. Weather is a science of uncertainty. That means that the weatherman or the National Weather Service can tell you what they think is going to happen and then it may or may not happen. They have a 50/50 chance of calling it right.
Recently the weatherman has called for 2 snow events that have turned out not as predicted. That is not the weatherman's fault. That is the thing with weather. We never know what is going to happen until it happens.
Weathermen are just predicting what they think will happen. It is their job. They are not perfect by any means. We have to cut them some slack. Just cause you want snow and it is in the forecast doesn't mean that it will happen. It means that it might happen.
Here is another thing. They put a % on each of the weather predictions. If it is 100% you know that it is going to happen. Anything below that and you may or may not get bad weather.
Take last night for example. There was a 100% chance on Monday of snow last night. As we got closer the chance of snow got lower. That was because the models had changed the closer this storm got to us. That is how it works.
Weathermen look at models to make their predictions about what is going to happen. Then it may change or it may not. It all depends too on if the factors are all in place for whatever they are expecting to happen.
Sometimes the factors are there, but the timing is just not right. Last nights weather was too warm and brought several hours of steady rain that did any of the snow chances in. That is good in my book.
So I would tell all those snow lovers out there to not get too overly excited about a snow forecast. It may or may not happen. All the weathermen can do is predict what they think will happen. You will just have to see what happens when the storm comes. That will be the real test.
No comments:
Post a Comment